Are the ADMK and DMK getting closer??

There are some murmurs going around, and some say a few signs that both the ADMK and DMK are toying the same political line, in the past few weeks, and that is with a strategy to keep the national ruling party, the BJP from gaining a foothold in the state, be in the run-up to the assembly polls in 2021, or in a post poll scenario.

Even if there is an ioto of truth in this behind the screen handshake, why would the arch rivals for over more than three decades in the state, who fought bitter tooth and nail battles under their respective leaders, would even dare to form such a dalliance?? Some people in the know of things say that the manner in which the national ruling party of the day has unsettled even electorally strong parties in the North and East of the country, have made both the regional giants left with little choice, but to have a secret marriage to keep a foe out of the state. They could be well aware of the fact that, even a slight scope for direct or indirect entry to the national party, could forebode ill, for the future of both the parties, in the future.

Its an open secret that if there is a situation, where one of the regional parties (either DMK or ADMK) do not secure a sweeping or even a simple half-way mark majority in the polls, what with their conventional alliances, then the BJP could play its cards strategically,  and use its tactics to unsettle things, even by splitting the principal parties, by luring MLAs playing a power share,  if there is a third front card.

This is where, the move by Rajinikanth is watched by all with great interest - while there are lot of his supporters and even neutral people who think he will poll significantly well (15% plus), and be a game changer, the fact remains that even if he is able to poll a 5 - 7 % vote share, it is going to affect the prospects of both the leading dravidian parties, the DMK and ADMK. More than the effect the Rajini factor could have in the polls, its the ambiguity that comes with his political entry, that could be very unnerving to both the Dravidian parties.

The most important fact is that neither of the states politcal stalwarts, Karunanidhi or Jayalalitha are alive, and this is the first time both parties will face elections just on the strenght of their performance, promises, and the cadre base. The DMK would claim that Stalin is a tall leader, but its a known fact that it will take years for him to reach the stature like his late father.

The absence of these leaders makes it possible for a party like BJP to play spoil sport, if there is enough room and leeway for it. And giving that leeway is now left in the hands of the ADMK and DMK. In their own long term interest, they will not cede space, it looks like, going by some latest moves in the TN political landscape.

Even the ADMK, which was earlier (say few months back) not too much against Rajinikanth, and his antics, is now trying to take a more neutral stand, or say indifferent posturing. This could be because of the fact that, maybe now, even the ADMK has realised that it is its own voteshare that the actor could harm, and thus taking a pro stand will be harmful. As far as the DMK is concerned, the party has always been virulent against the actor, and thinks that he has no business in the political space of the state.

What is more important is that, both the DMK and ADMK may be somewhere aware that the BJP could do so much damage, even with someone like Rajinikanth in its fold, and just in case they do not take cognizance of this, their political standing here in Tamilnadu, could take a hit, not just in the next assembly elections, but in the long run. If the BJP plays its shrewd games well, then it could spell big trouble for both the ADMK and DMK, in 2026, thats the next assembly poll.

Given this kind of gravamen implication, there is indeed a distinct possibility that the DMK and ADMK could even come to a behind the screen understanding, to keep the BJP and its friends out of the reckoning, come what may.

If you see the ADMK and DMK getting more and more closer now, and in the coming weeks and months, you know why!

Rajinikanth, what will happen to TRPs?

Well, the media may feign surprise at the way Rajinikanth is not taking a final decision, with respect to his political launch. Will the Rajini Makkal Mandram aka RMM, forever remain just that, an apolitical body, that helps various causes across the state of Tamilnadu. That is the question most observers, and most seasoned political observers seems to be asking, so often, and so often!

But, there is another angle to the whole enigma of the man, that is Rajinikanth, an actor who refuses to take a final plunge, that could possibly change the way the political landscape behaves in this state. The political uncertainty that revolves around the actor is a very good feed for almost all the regional Tamil broadcast channels, and even some channels in then national media scape.

Just a few seconds of sound byte at the gates of his Poes garden residence, or in the airport entrance, while on the way to Mumbai or while back to Chennai, or as the latest viral pic of the man steering a Lamborghini, with his mask on - what is needed is something that trivial by the actor for the regional media to almost go on a mad frenzy, and what with almost all the established political parties, which have ruled the state, or which is ruling jumping the bandwagon, and passing eloquent observations on the man and his style, his political affiliation, his religious inclination and what not.

Even a mild move by the actor now is sufficient to set the media on a debate wild-fire, and send journalists in Chennai and across the country in a tizzy and frenzy. It doesn't matter what he does or said makes any real sense or is of consequence or otherwise - the media spends hours and days debating on almost every trivia of what he said, how he stood, what he did, and what he did not! And even worse, the plight of almost all the principal parties in the state, who are forced to take a side - are you in the side of Rajinikanth, or the opposite side, or are you and your party indifferent?!

So, whether the man takes a political plunge or not, he is already setting the agenda in the media, both in Tamilnadu and at the national level. And if at all he takes a political plunge (which he may well not), it will be the newsrooms in Chennai and Delhi that will be a wee bit disappointed, because you can earn better TRPs with an uncertain and ambiguous Rajinikanth, than Rajinikanth, leader of the xyz political party in the electoral fray!?